Confidence before answering
Record a probability before seeing the outcome. Calibration compares confidence with accuracy over many predictions.
Practice judgment without pretending to measure intelligence.
These exercises produce records for reflection. A short task cannot diagnose brain health, establish IQ, or prove permanent cognitive change.
Base rates and the outside view
Start with what usually happens in a comparable class before explaining why this case feels special.
Prediction log
Write the outcome, time horizon, probability, and update trigger before memory can rewrite the forecast.
Pre-mortem
Assume the plan failed. List the most plausible causes, then add one prevention or detection step.
Delayed reflection
Review after enough time has passed to separate immediate fluency from retention and transfer.
Novel-context transfer
Try the principle in a different setting. Familiar-task improvement alone may be practice.
Error review
Name the error type, the evidence you missed, and the rule you will test next time.
The consider-the-opposite exercise
- 1. State the current belief and confidence.
- 2. Generate the strongest plausible explanation for the opposite.
- 3. Name evidence that would distinguish the two explanations.
- 4. Update confidence, even if the answer does not change.
Evidence and limitsmoderate
Actively generating a plausible opposing explanation can reduce some forms of biased assimilation and hypothesis testing.
Limit: The original experiments tested specific social-judgment tasks; transfer to every real-world decision is not established.
Considering the opposite: a corrective strategy for social judgment